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Tony Pollard Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - NFC Wild Card Game
Dallas Cowboys vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Tony Pollard Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 34.5 (-110/-110).
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Dallas's ranks #2 in that regard this season.This year, the Cowboys have played in 11 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #2-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.In a neutral context, Dallas has run the #1-fastest paced offense this season.The Dallas Cowboys are projected to run 65.2 plays in this matchup, the #3-most on the game slate.The Cowboys enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #8-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 35.9% of their plays.
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CONS:
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Teams run the ball less when they're in a dome and there's no wind, which will be the case for Dallas this week.Dallas has been the #26-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 36.1% run rate in a neutral context.The 49ers defense has allowed 104 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #7-least in football.The San Francisco 49ers have allowed 4.11 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #6-best in the metric this season.The linebackers of San Francisco have been the #6-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of San Francisco have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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Pollard finds himself in the #56 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 47 yards.His 30.2% snap rate this year puts him in the #49 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 32.4% this year puts him in the #55 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Pollard for a -3.3% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The defensive ends of San Francisco have been the #11-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of San Francisco have been the #12-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Pollard to exceed his player prop total 47.5% of the time. He projects for 32.3 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the UNDER, with an expected value of $0.25. That makes its return on investment yield +0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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