My Account Log Out
Tom Brady

Tom Brady Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 276.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 272.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 276.5 @ -115.
  • Brady has passed for 325 yards per game this year, #1-best in the league.
  • He's been the #9-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.5% clip.
  • Efficiency-wise, Brady has been #9 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.56 yards per target.
  • The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Buccaneers project to run 65.3 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 71.7% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 66.5% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Tom Brady's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Buccaneers offensive line has given Tom Brady 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-best in football).
  • The Panthers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.6% of their targets, ranking #24-best in the NFL.
  • The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box on 21.0% of their plays this season, #3-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • CONS:
  • Tampa Bay is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.
  • The Carolina Panthers enter this game with the #2-best pass defense this season, allowing 200 yards per game through the air.
  • Panthers defensive ends have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Panthers defensive tackles have ranked #6 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Panthers linebackers have ranked #8 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • Tampa Bay has played in the #9-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind) this year, which saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.7%).
  • The Carolina Panthers defense ranks #13-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.53.
  • Carolina's cornerbacks grade out as the #20-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Carolina's safeties grade out as the #14-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Carolina's linebackers grade out as the #15-best in pass coverage this year.

    THE BLITZ sees Brady putting up 306.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.2% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.47. Its return on investment would yield +13%.

    Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
    © 2021 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™