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Tom Brady Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Carolina Panthers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Tom Brady Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 276.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 272.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 276.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Brady has passed for 325 yards per game this year, #1-best in the league.He's been the #9-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 67.5% clip.Efficiency-wise, Brady has been #9 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.56 yards per target.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Buccaneers project to run 65.3 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 71.7% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 66.5% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Tom Brady's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Buccaneers offensive line has given Tom Brady 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-best in football).The Panthers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.6% of their targets, ranking #24-best in the NFL.The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box on 21.0% of their plays this season, #3-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Tampa Bay is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.The Carolina Panthers enter this game with the #2-best pass defense this season, allowing 200 yards per game through the air.Panthers defensive ends have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Panthers defensive tackles have ranked #6 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Panthers linebackers have ranked #8 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Tampa Bay has played in the #9-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind) this year, which saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.7%).The Carolina Panthers defense ranks #13-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.53.Carolina's cornerbacks grade out as the #20-best in pass coverage this year.Carolina's safeties grade out as the #14-best in pass coverage this year.Carolina's linebackers grade out as the #15-best in pass coverage this year.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Brady putting up 306.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 60.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $14.47. Its return on investment would yield +13%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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