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Taysom Hill Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints
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Right now, Taysom Hill Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 204.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 211.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 204.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Saints have faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).Atlanta has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.2% of their targets, which ranks them #28-best in the NFL.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #28-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #30-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Atlanta's defensive ends rank #27 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Atlanta's defensive tackles rank #32 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Atlanta's linebackers rank #30 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, at #40-best in the league, Hill has passed for76 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #38-best in the league, completing passes at a 56.2% clip.This year, the Saints have played in 9 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #5-most in football and means Hill's numbers may be artificially inflated.The New Orleans Saints are projected to run 61.5 plays in this matchup, the #24-most on the game slate.The Saints enter as a 4.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 56.9% of the time (#30 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects New Orleans to drop back to pass on 49.1% of their plays in this game (#31-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #10-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Falcons, they've stacked the box on 7.8% of their plays this season, #30-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of efficiency, Hill has been #26 in the NFL this season. He averages 6.69 yards per target.In a neutral context, New Orleans has run the #20-fastest paced offense this season.New Orleans's O-Line grades out as the #20-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.New Orleans has run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Atlanta's #20-ranked pass defense has allowed 252 passing yards per game this year.In terms of passing efficiency, Atlanta's defense is #21-best. This is because they allowed 7.76 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Hill to exceed his player prop total 58.4% of the time. He projects for 226.5 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $10.45. That makes its return on investment yield +9%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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