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Taysom Hill Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints
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Taysom Hill Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 211.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 205.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 211.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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New Orleans is a 11.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New Orleans have faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the league this year (18.3%).Buccaneers defensive ends have ranked #28 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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New Orleans has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.This offense passes the ball 57.4% of the time in a neutral context (#30 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 52.7% of the time in this contest (#31 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Tampa Bay's defense has been #2-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.00 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #5-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #4-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #9-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Buccaneers defensive tackles have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have stacked the box on 11.9% of their plays this season, #23-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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The New Orleans Saints have had the #21-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Saints project to run 62.2 plays in this contest, the #22-most of the week.Taysom Hill's offensive line has been #20 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New Orleans Saints have run play-action on 23.9% of their passes this year, #22-most in the NFL.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter this game with the #22-best pass defense this season, allowing 264 yards per game through the air.The Buccaneers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.2% of their targets, ranking #22 in the NFL.Buccaneers linebackers have ranked #18 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 222.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.59. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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