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Taylor Heinicke

Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys
 
 
 
Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 226.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 244.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 226.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • He's been the #4-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 69.5% clip.
  • Washington has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The WFT project to run 65.1 plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.
  • Washington is a 6.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • Taylor Heinicke's offensive line has been #4 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Washington Football Team have run play-action on 34.1% of their passes this year, #3-most in the NFL.
  • The Dallas Cowboys enter this game with the #24-best pass defense this season, allowing 267 yards per game through the air.
  • Cowboys defensive tackles have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The WFT offensive line has given Taylor Heinicke 2.58 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Washington have faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#5.3%).
  • The Cowboys have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.5% of their targets, ranking #3 in the NFL.
  • Cowboys linebackers have ranked #4 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • Heinicke has passed for 242 yards per game this year, #16-best in the league.
  • Efficiency-wise, Heinicke has been #18 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.39 yards per target.
  • This offense passes the ball 59.4% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 59.4% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Dallas's defense has been #18-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.86 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have had the #16-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have had the #12-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have had the #17-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Cowboys defensive ends have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Dallas Cowboys have stacked the box on 15.1% of their plays this season, #15-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 228.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.8% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.84 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
     
     
     
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