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Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys
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Taylor Heinicke Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 226.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 244.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 226.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #4-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 69.5% clip.Washington has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The WFT project to run 65.1 plays in this contest, the #4-most of the week.Washington is a 6.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Taylor Heinicke's offensive line has been #4 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Washington Football Team have run play-action on 34.1% of their passes this year, #3-most in the NFL.The Dallas Cowboys enter this game with the #24-best pass defense this season, allowing 267 yards per game through the air.Cowboys defensive tackles have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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The Washington Football Team have had the #23-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The WFT offensive line has given Taylor Heinicke 2.58 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Washington have faced the #32-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#5.3%).The Cowboys have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 64.5% of their targets, ranking #3 in the NFL.Cowboys linebackers have ranked #4 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Heinicke has passed for 242 yards per game this year, #16-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Heinicke has been #18 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.39 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 59.4% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 59.4% of the time in this contest (#17 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Dallas's defense has been #18-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.86 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #16-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #12-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #17-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Cowboys defensive ends have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Dallas Cowboys have stacked the box on 15.1% of their plays this season, #15-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 228.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 50.8% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.84 and with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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