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Sterling Shepard

Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Los Angeles Chargers vs New York Giants
Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-115/-115).
  • His target share this season has been 23.9% -- #89 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Shepard has been in the #87 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 76.7% completion rate.
  • New York has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the #28 unit in pass coverage.
  • New York is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 64.8% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 65.6% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Giants offensive line has given the QB 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#4-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Giants have run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Shepard is projected for -3.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #29 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Los Angeles's defense has allowed 141 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#25-most in football).
  • Los Angeles Chargers safeties rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.
  • Shepard's offensive line has been #30 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

  • Shepard has been on the field for 64.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 73.0% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #65 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.35 yards per target this season, ranking in the #55 percentile.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #21-most yards per target (7.92) against the Chargers this season.
  • The Chargers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.8% of their targets this season, (#12-most in the league).
  • The New York Giants have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Giants project to run 63.6 plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.9%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.2% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.07. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.

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