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Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Los Angeles Chargers vs New York Giants
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Sterling Shepard Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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His target share this season has been 23.9% -- #89 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Shepard has been in the #87 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 76.7% completion rate.New York has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the #28 unit in pass coverage.New York is a 9.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offense passes the ball 64.8% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 65.6% of the time in this contest (#5 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Giants offensive line has given the QB 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#4-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Giants have run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Shepard is projected for -3.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #29 percentile among wide receivers.Los Angeles's defense has allowed 141 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#25-most in football).Los Angeles Chargers safeties rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.Shepard's offensive line has been #30 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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NEUTRAL:
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Shepard has been on the field for 64.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #66 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 73.0% of New York's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #65 percentile among wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.35 yards per target this season, ranking in the #55 percentile.Opposing wideouts have put up the #21-most yards per target (7.92) against the Chargers this season.The Chargers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.8% of their targets this season, (#12-most in the league).The New York Giants have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Giants project to run 63.6 plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York has faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.9%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.3 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.2% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.07. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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