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Sony Michel Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 22 - Super Bowl LVI
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Sony Michel Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 20.5 (-105/-115), with an implied projection of 20.0 yards.
The money is on the Under: it opened 20.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Los Angeles's ranks #1 in that regard this season.His 46.9% snap rate this year puts him in the #73 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 52.1% this year puts him in the #82 percentile among running backs.This year, the Rams have played in 11 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #3-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 62.1 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.The Rams enter as a 4.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #2-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 35.9% of their plays.The linebackers of Cincinnati have been the #28-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Michel for a -31.9% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Teams run the ball less when winds are light, and forecasts call for 1-mph wind in this game.Los Angeles has been the #27-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 34.8% run rate in a neutral context.The Bengals defense has allowed 103 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #5-least in football.The defensive tackles of Cincinnati have been the #7-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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Michel finds himself in the #63 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 50 yards.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.The Cincinnati Bengals have allowed 4.37 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #15-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of Cincinnati have been the #22-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Cincinnati have been the #19-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Michel to exceed his player prop total 47.4% of the time. He projects for 18.8 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$2.00 with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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