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Sony Michel Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
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Sony Michel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 68.5 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 69.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has ranked #1 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Michel is projected for 49.2% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.Los Angeles has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#5-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Rams project to run 64.4 total plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.In terms of efficiency, Arizona's defense has allowed 4.74 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#27-least in football).Cardinals defensive ends have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Cardinals linebackers have ranked #25 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Cardinals safeties have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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Los Angeles is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense runs the ball 33.8% of the time in a neutral context (#28 in the NFL), and they project to run 33.8% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 34.0% of the time in this contest (#25 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Michel has been the #41-leading rusher this season, tallying 36 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 31.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #53 percentile among running backs.He has received 34.5% of Los Angeles's carries this year -- #43 percentile when it comes to running backs.The Arizona Cardinals have ranked #17 against the run this year, holding opponents to 114 yards per game on the ground.Cardinals defensive tackles have ranked #20 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Los Angeles Rams have faced a stacked box 12.5% of the time this season -- #21-most in football.The Arizona Cardinals have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 12.1% of the time this season, ranking as the #22 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 84.1 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $15.14. It's return on investment would yeild 14%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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