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Sony Michel Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams
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Sony Michel Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 23.0 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 22.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Michel has been the #51-leading rusher this season, tallying 29 yards per game on the ground.The Los Angeles Rams offensive line has ranked #1 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Los Angeles has played in the #6-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year. Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 6.3% of the time this season, ranking as the #31 most in the league.
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CONS:
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This offense runs the ball 33.9% of the time in a neutral context (#27 in the NFL), and they project to run 33.9% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 36.7% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Packers defensive ends have ranked #10 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Packers linebackers have ranked #3 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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He has been on the field for 28.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #48 percentile among running backs.He has received 30.3% of Los Angeles's carries this year -- #47 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Michel is projected for -3.7% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #27 percentile among running backs.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Rams project to run 62.1 total plays in this contest, the #20-most of the week.The Green Bay Packers have ranked #12 against the run this year, holding opponents to 108 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Green Bay's defense has allowed 4.63 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#22-least in football).Packers defensive tackles have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Packers safeties have ranked #14 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Los Angeles Rams have faced a stacked box 12.8% of the time this season -- #21-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 25.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.9% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.40 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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