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Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Chicago Bears vs New York Giants
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Right now, Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 53.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 51.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 53.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 56.3% snap rate this year puts him in the #83 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 54.7% this year puts him in the #86 percentile among running backs.In a neutral context, New York has run the #6-fastest paced offense this season.The Bears defense has allowed 130 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #27-least in football.The Chicago Bears have allowed 4.81 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #27-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Chicago have been the #27-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Chicago have been the #30-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and New York's ranks #25 in that regard this season.This year, the Giants have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means New York could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.The New York Giants are projected to run 61.4 plays in this matchup, the #28-most on the game slate.The Giants enter as a 6.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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Barkley finds himself in the #51 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 42 yards.This week, THE BLITZ projects Barkley for a 6.3% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.New York has been the #22-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 37.4% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #14-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 41.2% of their plays.The defensive ends of Chicago have been the #13-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Chicago have been the #22-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.New York has faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (14.9% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Bears have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #16-most in the NFL this year at 14.7% of the time.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Barkley to exceed his player prop total 66.3% of the time. He projects for 75.9 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $27.46. That makes its return on investment yield +24%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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