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Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Philadelphia Eagles vs New York Giants
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Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 52.7 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 58.6% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #84 percentile among running backs.He has received 53.5% of New York's carries this year -- #19 percentile when it comes to running backs.The New York Giants have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Eagles defensive tackles have ranked #31 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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The New York Giants offensive line has ranked #24 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.New York has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.New York is a 11.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offense runs the ball 37.0% of the time in a neutral context (#23 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.0% of the time in this contest.This offenses projects to runs 37.4% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.In terms of efficiency, Philadelphia's defense has allowed 4.28 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#10-least in football).Eagles safeties have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Barkley has been the #35-leading rusher this season, tallying 43 yards per game on the ground.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Barkley is projected for 4.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Giants project to run 62.8 total plays in this contest, the #19-most of the week.The Philadelphia Eagles have ranked #16 against the run this year, holding opponents to 111 yards per game on the ground.Eagles defensive ends have ranked #11 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Eagles linebackers have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Giants have faced a stacked box 14.9% of the time this season -- #14-most in football.The Philadelphia Eagles have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 15.4% of the time this season, ranking as the #14 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 57.4 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.80. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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