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Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants
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Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 57.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #84 percentile among running backs.He has received 48.0% of New York's carries this year -- #27 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Barkley is projected for 19.2% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
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CONS:
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The New York Giants offensive line has ranked #26 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.New York has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Giants project to run 61.5 total plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.New York is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offense runs the ball 35.6% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL), and they project to run 35.6% of the time in this contest.Dolphins defensive ends have ranked #6 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 18.2% of the time this season, ranking as the #9 most in the league.
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NEUTRAL:
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Barkley has been the #43-leading rusher this season, tallying 37 yards per game on the ground.The New York Giants have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offenses projects to runs 36.6% of the time in this contest (#21 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Miami Dolphins have ranked #13 against the run this year, holding opponents to 106 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Miami's defense has allowed 4.56 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#20-least in football).Dolphins defensive tackles have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Dolphins linebackers have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Dolphins safeties have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Giants have faced a stacked box 14.9% of the time this season -- #14-most in football.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 63.5 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $4.41. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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