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Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles
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Saquon Barkley Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 54.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 52.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 54.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Barkley has been the #41-leading rusher this season, tallying 37 yards per game on the ground.He has been on the field for 53.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #79 percentile among running backs.He has received 47.6% of New York's carries this year -- #28 percentile when it comes to running backs.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Barkley is projected for 10.0% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #85 percentile among running backs.The New York Giants have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Giants project to run 65.0 total plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.The Philadelphia Eagles have ranked #25 against the run this year, holding opponents to 123 yards per game on the ground.Eagles defensive tackles have ranked #30 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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CONS:
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The New York Giants offensive line has ranked #25 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.New York has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in bad-weather conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.New York is a 3.5 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense runs the ball 35.2% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL), and they project to run 35.2% of the time in this contest.Eagles defensive ends have ranked #9 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Eagles safeties have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the New York Giants have faced a stacked box 15.9% of the time this season -- #10-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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This offenses projects to runs 38.8% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.In terms of efficiency, Philadelphia's defense has allowed 4.50 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#18-least in football).Eagles linebackers have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Philadelphia Eagles have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.5% of the time this season, ranking as the #18 most in the league.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 61.5 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 55.6% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $4.58. It's return on investment would yeild 4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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