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Sammy Watkins

Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens
Sammy Watkins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 28.5 @ -115.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.05 yards per target this season, ranking in the #70 percentile.
  • Cleveland Browns safeties rank as the #23 unit in pass coverage.
  • Baltimore is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • Watkins's offensive line has been #7 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Baltimore Ravens have run play-action on 36.3% of their passes this year, #2-most in the NFL.

  • CONS:
  • Cleveland's defense has allowed 148 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#23-most in football).
  • Cleveland Browns cornerbacks rank as the #5 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Baltimore Ravens have had the #26-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Ravens project to run 60.6 plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.
  • This offenses projects to pass 53.4% of the time in this contest (#24 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • Watkins has been on the field for 60.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #62 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 62.0% of Baltimore's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #55 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 14.5% -- #63 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Watkins is projected for -2.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #37 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Watkins has been in the #50 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 64.3% completion rate.
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #17-most yards per target (8.34) against the Browns this season.
  • The Browns have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.1% of their targets this season, (#19-most in the league).
  • This offense passes the ball 60.6% of the time in a neutral context (#17 in the NFL).
  • The Ravens offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Baltimore has faced the #12-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.5%).

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 25.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 46.8% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$0.51 and with a negative ROI of -0%.

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