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Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears
Russell Wilson Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 229.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 243.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 229.5 @ -115.
  • Efficiency-wise, Wilson has been #13 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.37 yards per target.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have had the #3-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Seahawks project to run 63.7 plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 62.7% of the time in a neutral context (#11 in the NFL).
  • Chicago's cornerbacks grade out as the #29-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Chicago's safeties grade out as the #24-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Bears defensive ends have ranked #29 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Bears defensive tackles have ranked #23 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • CONS:
  • Seattle is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 52.1% of the time in this contest (#31 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Russell Wilson's offensive line has been #26 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Seattle have faced the #28-most stacked boxes in the league this year (9.2%).
  • The Chicago Bears enter this game with the #5-best pass defense this season, allowing 225 yards per game through the air.

  • Wilson has passed for 213 yards per game this year, #25-best in the league.
  • He's been the #21-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.2% clip.
  • Seattle has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#11-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.
  • The Seahawks offensive line has given Russell Wilson 2.51 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#22-best in football).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Seattle Seahawks have run play-action on 25.1% of their passes this year, #19-most in the NFL.
  • The Bears have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.7% of their targets, ranking #14-best in the NFL.
  • The Chicago Bears defense ranks #21-best in football in Yards per Target at 7.89.
  • Chicago's linebackers grade out as the #17-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Bears linebackers have ranked #18 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Chicago Bears have stacked the box on 14.7% of their plays this season, #16-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

    THE BLITZ sees Wilson putting up 210.7 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 42.9% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $7.85. Its return on investment would yield +7%.

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