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Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 19 - AFC Wild Card Game
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots
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Right now, Rhamondre Stevenson Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 39.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 48.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and New England's ranks #7 in that regard this season.The New England Patriots are projected to run 63.9 plays in this matchup, the #9-most on the game slate.New England has been the #9-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 41.4% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #3-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 42.4% of their plays.The safeties of Buffalo have been the #31-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, New England has run the #25-fastest paced offense this season.The Patriots enter as a 4.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.The Bills defense has allowed 104 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #8-least in football.The Buffalo Bills have allowed 4.12 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #7-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Buffalo have been the #9-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The linebackers of Buffalo have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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Stevenson finds himself in the #66 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 50 yards.His 34.3% snap rate this year puts him in the #53 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 34.1% this year puts him in the #60 percentile among running backs.This week, THE BLITZ projects Stevenson for a -2.4% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Patriots have played in the #6-most games with 15 mph+ winds. Because teams tend to run more when it's windy, New England's play-calling Run% may appear higher than it ought to be.The defensive ends of Buffalo have been the #14-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Stevenson to exceed his player prop total 53.7% of the time. He projects for 43.2 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $2.73. That makes its return on investment yield +2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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