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Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
San Francisco 49ers vs Houston Texans
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Right now, Rex Burkhead Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 44.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 44.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 44.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Burkhead finds himself in the #32 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 30 yards.This week, THE BLITZ projects Burkhead for a 33.0% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.In a neutral context, Houston has run the #11-fastest paced offense this season.Houston has been the #5-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 42.1% run rate in a neutral context.The 49ers have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #26-most in the NFL this year at 9.7% of the time.
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CONS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and Houston's ranks #24 in that regard this season.This year, the Texans have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Offenses generally run more in these types of games, which means Houston could be running a bit less going forward in better conditions.The Houston Texans are projected to run 58.0 plays in this matchup, the #32-most on the game slate.The Texans are a 13.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #26-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 36.6% of their plays.The linebackers of San Francisco have been the #6-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of San Francisco have been the #4-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.Houston has faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (15.7% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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His 31.1% snap rate this year puts him in the #51 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 28.3% this year puts him in the #52 percentile among running backs.The 49ers defense has allowed 107 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #12-least in football.The San Francisco 49ers have allowed 4.28 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #12-best in the metric this season.The defensive ends of San Francisco have been the #12-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of San Francisco have been the #11-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Burkhead to exceed his player prop total 54.3% of the time. He projects for 49.1 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $1.68. That makes its return on investment yield +1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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