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Rashard Higgins

Rashard Higgins Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland Browns
Right now, Rashard Higgins Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 19.5 (-115/-115).

The money is on the Under: it opened 21.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -115.
  • This year, the Browns have played in the #2-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps wide receiver efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.
  • As a unit, the Steelers cornerbacks rank #28 in pass coverage.
  • As a unit, the Steelers safeties rank #31 in pass coverage.
  • Cleveland's O-Line grades out as the #9-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Higgins open.
  • Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Browns have faced the #7-most stacked boxes in the league this year (16.7%).

  • CONS:
  • The Steelers's pass defense ranks #10-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 150 yards per game this season.
  • In a neutral context, Cleveland has run the #27-fastest paced offense this season.
  • The Cleveland Browns are projected to run 61.2 plays in this matchup, the #24-most on the game slate.
  • THE BLITZ projects Cleveland to drop back to pass on 57.3% of their plays in this game (#23-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.

  • In terms of playing time, Higgins ranks in the #54 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 52.0% of his team's snaps this season.
  • In terms of route running, Higgins ranks in the #51 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 55.7% of Cleveland's dropbacks this season.
  • In terms of earning targets, Higgins ranks in the #51 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 9.7% of passes this season.
  • This week, THE BLITZ projects Higgins for a 0.3% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.
  • Higgins ranks in the #37 percentile and has put up 7.65 yards per target this season.
  • Higgins's 62.2% completion rate marks him in the #38 percentile among receivers.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed 8.19 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #17-highest among NFL opponents.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers rank #15-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 65.8%.
  • In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 59.3% of the time (#22 in the NFL).
  • Cleveland has run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.

    THE BLITZ projects Higgins to exceed his player prop total 56.7% of the time. He projects for 25.1 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.

    According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $6.82. That makes its return on investment yield +6%.

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