| |
Rashaad Penny Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rashaad Penny Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 56.5 (-110/-125) with an implied projection of 55.2 yards.
The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 56.5 @ -110.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROS:
|
|
Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Penny is projected for 23.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.The Seattle Seahawks have had the #3-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Seahawks project to run 63.7 total plays in this contest, the #9-most of the week.Seattle is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.This offenses projects to runs 47.9% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Chicago Bears have ranked #27 against the run this year, holding opponents to 128 yards per game on the ground.In terms of efficiency, Chicago's defense has allowed 4.70 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#26-least in football).Bears defensive tackles have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bears linebackers have ranked #29 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Seattle Seahawks have faced a stacked box 9.2% of the time this season -- #28-most in football.
|
|
|
|
|
|
CONS:
|
|
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line has ranked #28 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
|
|
|
|
|
|
NEUTRAL:
|
|
He has been on the field for 33.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #53 percentile among running backs.He has received 30.2% of Seattle's carries this year -- #49 percentile when it comes to running backs.Seattle has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#11-most in football). Teams tend to pass the ball more in low-wind conditions, artificially deflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.This offense runs the ball 37.3% of the time in a neutral context (#22 in the NFL), and they project to run 37.3% of the time in this contest.Bears defensive ends have ranked #15 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Bears safeties have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Chicago Bears have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 14.7% of the time this season, ranking as the #16 most in the league.
|
|
|
|
|
|
PROJECTION:
|
|
THE BLITZ sees him putting up 76.6 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 64.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $25.24. It's return on investment would yeild 23%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
|
ABOUT WRITENOW™
Create optimizable, relevant sports betting content at scale by automating your content generation process with WriteNow™. Designed and built by betting experts, WriteNow™ uses up-to-the-minute market data to develop stories that provide real-time betting insights and tell the story behind the numbers. WriteNow™ solves all your written content needs without the expense of an editorial team. The future of sports betting content is WriteNow™.
|
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
|
| |
|
|
|
