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Phillip Dorsett

Phillip Dorsett Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers

Phillip Dorsett Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-120/-110) with an implied projection of 20.1 yards.

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -120.

PROS:

Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Dorsett is projected for 9.9% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.

Houston has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.

This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.

Los Angeles Chargers cornerbacks rank as the #23 unit in pass coverage.

The Houston Texans have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

Houston is a 13.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.

This offenses projects to pass 65.8% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Texans offensive line has given the QB 2.26 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#1-most time in the league).

Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Houston has faced the #11-most stacked boxes in the league this year (15.7%).

CONS:

Los Angeles's defense has allowed 137 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#27-most in football).

Opposing wideouts have put up the #25-most yards per target (7.63) against the Chargers this season.

This offense passes the ball 58.6% of the time in a neutral context (#26 in the NFL).

Dorsett's offensive line has been #25 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

NEUTRAL:

The Chargers have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 66.6% of their targets this season, (#16-most in the league).

Los Angeles Chargers safeties rank as the #16 unit in pass coverage.

The Texans project to run 63.6 plays in this contest, the #12-most of the week.

Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Houston Texans have run play-action on 24.6% of their passes this year, #20-most in the NFL.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 39.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 70.5% of the time.

THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $35.06. It's return on investment would yeild 29%.

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