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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 21 - AFC Championship Game
Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals
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Right now, Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 290.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 280.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 290.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #2-best in the league, Mahomes has passed for300 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #9-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.5% clip.In terms of efficiency, Mahomes has been #5 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.75 yards per target.This year, the Chiefs have played in the #1-most games with 15 mph+ winds. High wind saps quarterback efficiency and should mean better performance in better conditions.In a neutral context, Kansas City has run the #10-fastest paced offense this season.The Kansas City Chiefs are projected to run 64.0 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.6% of the time (#2 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Kansas City to drop back to pass on 65.2% of their plays in this game (#2-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Kansas City's O-Line grades out as the #2-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Cincinnati's #27-ranked pass defense has allowed 254 passing yards per game this year.Cincinnati has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.4% of their targets, which ranks them #25-best in the NFL.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cincinnati's linebackers rank #32 this season.
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CONS:
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The Chiefs are a 7.0 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #2-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of passing efficiency, Cincinnati's defense is #22-best. This is because they allowed 7.78 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #19-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #20-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cincinnati's defensive ends rank #16 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cincinnati's defensive tackles rank #13 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Mahomes to exceed his player prop total 53.2% of the time. He projects for 299.9 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $1.80. That makes its return on investment yield +2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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