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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 285.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 279.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 285.5 @ -115.

PROS:

Mahomes has passed for 297 yards per game this year, #2-best in the league.

Efficiency-wise, Mahomes has been #10 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.69 yards per target.

Kansas City has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.

The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.

The Chiefs project to run 66.5 plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.

This offense passes the ball 70.9% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL).

This offenses projects to pass 65.3% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Patrick Mahomes's offensive line has been #2 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

Chargers defensive ends have ranked #31 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

CONS:

Kansas City is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.

Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Kansas City have faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (5.8%).

The Los Angeles Chargers enter this game with the #4-best pass defense this season, allowing 216 yards per game through the air.

Los Angeles's defense has been #7-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.33 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.

The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #8-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.

The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #7-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.

Chargers defensive tackles have ranked #1 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

Chargers linebackers have ranked #1 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

NEUTRAL:

He's been the #16-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.7% clip.

Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.

The Chargers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.9% of their targets, ranking #11 in the NFL.

The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #21-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.

The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box on 15.6% of their plays this season, #13-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

PROJECTION:

THE BLITZ sees him putting up 299.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.9% of the time.

THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $3.04. It's return on investment would yeild 3%.

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