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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
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Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 294.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 271.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 294.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Mahomes has passed for 301 yards per game this year, #2-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Mahomes has been #13 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.55 yards per target.Kansas City has played in the #2-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Chiefs project to run 66.6 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 71.1% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL).Patrick Mahomes's offensive line has been #1 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #25-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Raiders defensive tackles have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box on 22.2% of their plays this season, #1-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Kansas City is a 9.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Kansas City have faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#5.8%).The Las Vegas Raiders enter this game with the #9-best pass defense this season, allowing 233 yards per game through the air.Las Vegas's defense has been #2-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 6.91 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.Raiders defensive ends have ranked #1 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Raiders linebackers have ranked #5 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #20-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.7% clip.This offenses projects to pass 61.0% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.The Raiders have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.7% of their targets, ranking #20 in the NFL.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #13-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #16-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 264.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 39.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $15.14. It's return on investment would yeild 13%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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