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Patrick Mahomes

Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders
 
 
 
Patrick Mahomes Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 294.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 271.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 294.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • Mahomes has passed for 301 yards per game this year, #2-best in the league.
  • Efficiency-wise, Mahomes has been #13 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.55 yards per target.
  • Kansas City has played in the #2-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which artificially saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have had the #4-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • The Chiefs project to run 66.6 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 71.1% of the time in a neutral context (#2 in the NFL).
  • Patrick Mahomes's offensive line has been #1 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #25-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Raiders defensive tackles have ranked #26 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have stacked the box on 22.2% of their plays this season, #1-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • CONS:
  • Kansas City is a 9.5 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Kansas City have faced the #31-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#5.8%).
  • The Las Vegas Raiders enter this game with the #9-best pass defense this season, allowing 233 yards per game through the air.
  • Las Vegas's defense has been #2-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 6.91 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
  • Raiders defensive ends have ranked #1 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Raiders linebackers have ranked #5 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • He's been the #20-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.7% clip.
  • This offenses projects to pass 61.0% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Kansas City Chiefs have run play-action on 25.4% of their passes this year, #17-most in the NFL.
  • The Raiders have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 71.7% of their targets, ranking #20 in the NFL.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #13-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have had the #16-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 264.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 39.5% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $15.14. It's return on investment would yeild 13%.
     
     
     
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