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Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers
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Right now, Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 47.5 (-120/-110), with an implied projection of 48.3 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 44.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 47.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Beckham ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 67.6% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Beckham ranks in the #71 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 78.1% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Beckham ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 17.9% of passes this season.The weather forecast here calls for 0-mph wind. This is notable because a higher portion of passes get completed when winds are light.The San Francisco 49ers have allowed 8.65 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #24-highest among NFL opponents.The San Francisco 49ers rank #28-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 68.6%.As a unit, the 49ers cornerbacks rank #28 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.5% of the time (#5 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 65.2% of their plays in this game (#5-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #2-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Beckham open.Los Angeles's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.57 seconds on average this year (#5-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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CONS:
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Beckham ranks in the #21 percentile and has put up 7.09 yards per target this season.Beckham's 56.3% completion rate marks him in the #15 percentile among receivers.The Rams enter as a 3.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.Los Angeles has run play-action on 23.0% of their passes this year, #26-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Beckham for a 0.6% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.The 49ers's pass defense ranks #18-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 159 yards per game this season.As a unit, the 49ers safeties rank #12 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 62.0 plays in this matchup, the #19-most on the game slate.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Rams have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Beckham to exceed his player prop total 56.5% of the time. He projects for 55.3 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $4.28. That makes its return on investment yield +4%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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