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Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams
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Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 46.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 45.7 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 46.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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His target share this season has been 17.2% -- #72 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Minnesota's defense has allowed 193 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#1-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #2-most yards per target (9.35) against the Vikings this season.Minnesota Vikings cornerbacks rank as the #32 unit in pass coverage.The Rams project to run 64.0 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 65.8% of the time in a neutral context (#6 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 65.8% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Beckham's offensive line has been #3 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Rams offensive line has given the QB 2.57 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-most time in the league).
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.36 yards per target this season, ranking in the #29 percentile.Beckham has been in the #12 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 55.1% completion rate.Minnesota Vikings safeties rank as the #6 unit in pass coverage.Los Angeles is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Rams have run play-action on 23.0% of their passes this year, #26-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Beckham has been on the field for 63.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 74.6% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #64 percentile among wide receivers.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Beckham is projected for 0.8% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #64 percentile among wide receivers.The Vikings have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.2% of their targets this season, (#12-most in the league).The Los Angeles Rams have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 54.1 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.4% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.42. It's return on investment would yeild 8%.
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