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N'Keal Harry

N'Keal Harry Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
N'Keal Harry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 24.9 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -120.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Harry is projected for 5.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.
  • New England has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New England has faced the #1-most stacked boxes in the league this year (26.0%).

  • CONS:
  • He has run a route on 30.9% of New England's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #28 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 4.9% -- #29 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Buffalo's defense has allowed 125 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#32-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #32-most yards per target (6.30) against the Bills this season.
  • The Bills have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 61.2% of their targets this season, (#27-most in the league).
  • Buffalo Bills cornerbacks rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.
  • Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the #1 unit in pass coverage.
  • The New England Patriots have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • This offense passes the ball 58.7% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 56.9% of the time in this contest (#28 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

  • Harry has been on the field for 34.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #38 percentile among wide receivers.
  • The Patriots project to run 63.4 plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.
  • Harry's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Patriots offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New England Patriots have run play-action on 26.3% of their passes this year, #14-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 19.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 42.6% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $6.32. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.

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