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N'Keal Harry Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills
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N'Keal Harry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 24.9 yards.
The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 25.5 @ -120.
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PROS:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Harry is projected for 5.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers.New England has played in the #4-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New England has faced the #1-most stacked boxes in the league this year (26.0%).
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CONS:
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He has run a route on 30.9% of New England's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #28 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 4.9% -- #29 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Buffalo's defense has allowed 125 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#32-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #32-most yards per target (6.30) against the Bills this season.The Bills have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 61.2% of their targets this season, (#27-most in the league).Buffalo Bills cornerbacks rank as the #7 unit in pass coverage.Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the #1 unit in pass coverage.The New England Patriots have had the #25-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.This offense passes the ball 58.7% of the time in a neutral context (#25 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 56.9% of the time in this contest (#28 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
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NEUTRAL:
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Harry has been on the field for 34.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #38 percentile among wide receivers.The Patriots project to run 63.4 plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.Harry's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Patriots offensive line has given the QB 2.43 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#13-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New England Patriots have run play-action on 26.3% of their passes this year, #14-most in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 19.2 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 42.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $6.32. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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