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Nick Foles Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Seattle Seahawks vs Chicago Bears
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Nick Foles Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 216.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 214.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 216.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Chicago is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.The Seattle Seahawks enter this game with the #32-best pass defense this season, allowing 285 yards per game through the air.The Seahawks have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 75.2% of their targets, ranking #32-best in the NFL.The Seattle Seahawks defense ranks #26-best in football in Yards per Target at 8.09.Seattle's safeties grade out as the #28-best in pass coverage this year.Seahawks defensive ends have ranked #30 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Seattle Seahawks have stacked the box on 20.1% of their plays this season, #4-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Chicago has played in the #15-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind) this year, which saps a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.This offense passes the ball 57.5% of the time in a neutral context (#29 in the NFL).Nick Foles's offensive line has been #23 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Seahawks defensive tackles have ranked #10 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Chicago Bears have had the #19-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Bears project to run 63.7 plays in this contest, the #11-most of the week.This offenses projects to pass 62.3% of the time in this contest (#11 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Bears offensive line has given Nick Foles 2.44 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#16-best in football).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Chicago Bears have run play-action on 26.9% of their passes this year, #13-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Chicago have faced the #19-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.2%).Seattle's cornerbacks grade out as the #22-best in pass coverage this year.Seattle's linebackers grade out as the #18-best in pass coverage this year.Seahawks linebackers have ranked #17 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Foles putting up 226.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.24. Its return on investment would yield +0%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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