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Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Green Bay Packers vs Cleveland Browns
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Nick Chubb Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 87.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 83.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 87.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He has been on the field for 56.2% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #83 percentile among running backs.He has received 62.1% of Cleveland's carries this year -- #10 percentile when it comes to running backs.This offense runs the ball 41.2% of the time in a neutral context (#9 in the NFL), and they project to run 41.2% of the time in this contest.In terms of efficiency, Green Bay's defense has allowed 4.72 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#27-least in football).Packers defensive ends have ranked #26 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 5.5% of the time this season, ranking as the #31 most in the league.
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CONS:
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Chubb has been the #4-leading rusher this season, tallying 92 yards per game on the ground.Cleveland has played in the #1-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.The Cleveland Browns have had the #29-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Browns project to run 59.0 total plays in this contest, the #32-most of the week.Cleveland is a 7.5 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.Packers linebackers have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Cleveland Browns have faced a stacked box 16.7% of the time this season -- #7-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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The Cleveland Browns offensive line has ranked #21 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Chubb is projected for 9.8% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.This offenses projects to runs 41.0% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Green Bay Packers have ranked #14 against the run this year, holding opponents to 109 yards per game on the ground.Packers defensive tackles have ranked #16 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.Packers safeties have ranked #19 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 80.5 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 45.7% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $1.81. It's return on investment would yeild 2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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