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Nelson Agholor

Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 12

New England Patriots vs Tennessee Titans
Nelson Agholor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 35.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -115.
  • Agholor has been on the field for 78.1% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #80 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 85.6% of New England's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #81 percentile among wide receivers.
  • Tennessee's defense has allowed 196 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#1-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #9-most yards per target (8.93) against the Titans this season.
  • The Patriots offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New England has faced the #1-most stacked boxes in the league this year (25.7%).

  • CONS:
  • Tennessee Titans safeties rank as the #2 unit in pass coverage.
  • The New England Patriots have had the #24-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • New England is a 7.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • This offenses projects to pass 55.7% of the time in this contest (#27 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.

  • His target share this season has been 14.2% -- #64 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Agholor is projected for 0.0% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #61 percentile among wide receivers.
  • The Titans have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.4% of their targets this season, (#14-most in the league).
  • Tennessee Titans cornerbacks rank as the #12 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Patriots project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #14-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 60.7% of the time in a neutral context (#18 in the NFL).
  • Agholor's offensive line has been #12 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New England Patriots have run play-action on 26.5% of their passes this year, #13-most in the NFL.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 32.5 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 47.0% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$0.96 and with a negative ROI of -1%.

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