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Najee Harris

Najee Harris Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 15

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tennessee Titans
Najee Harris Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 69.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 68.5 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 71.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 69.5 @ -120.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has ranked #8 in the NFL when it comes to run blocking this season.
  • He has been on the field for 84.5% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #100 percentile among running backs.
  • He has received 80.0% of Pittsburgh's carries this year -- #2 percentile when it comes to running backs.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have had the #8-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Titans linebackers have ranked #25 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box with 8 or more defenders 9.9% of the time this season, ranking as the #25 most in the league.

  • CONS:
  • Harris has been the #9-leading rusher this season, tallying 67 yards per game on the ground.
  • Pittsburgh has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year. Teams tend to run the ball more in windy conditions, artificially inflating their play-calling Run%, which should balance back out under normal conditions.
  • The Tennessee Titans have ranked #3 against the run this year, holding opponents to 91 yards per game on the ground.
  • In terms of efficiency, Tennessee's defense has allowed 4.08 yards per carry to opposing rushers (#6-least in football).
  • Titans safeties have ranked #4 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Stacking the box with extra defenders is a common strategy defenses uses to stop the run, and the Pittsburgh Steelers have faced a stacked box 16.1% of the time this season -- #10-most in football.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Harris is projected for 0.2% more of his team's carry share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks among the biggest increases among running backs this week.
  • The Steelers project to run 62.5 total plays in this contest, the #19-most of the week.
  • This offense runs the ball 38.1% of the time in a neutral context (#20 in the NFL), and they project to run 38.1% of the time in this contest.
  • This offenses projects to runs 38.5% of the time in this contest (#22 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Titans defensive ends have ranked #13 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.
  • Titans defensive tackles have ranked #21 in the NFL in run stopping effectiveness this season.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 84.5 Rushing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 59.8% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $15.56. It's return on investment would yeild 14%.

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