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Mike Williams

Mike Williams Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers
Mike Williams Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (-110/-120) with an implied projection of 52.6 yards.

The money has been on the Under as it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -120.
  • Williams has been on the field for 81.4% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #82 percentile among wide receivers.
  • He has run a route on 85.4% of Los Angeles's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #78 percentile among wide receivers.
  • His target share this season has been 20.1% -- #80 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
  • Los Angeles has played in the #3-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • The Bengals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 69.1% of their targets this season, (#6-most in the league).
  • The Los Angeles Chargers have had the #3-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Los Angeles is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 68.3% of the time in a neutral context (#3 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 65.6% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Chargers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Chargers have run play-action on 29.3% of their passes this year, #8-most in the NFL.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles has faced the #5-most stacked boxes in the league this year (19.4%).

  • CONS:
  • Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks rank as the #9 unit in pass coverage.

  • Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Williams is projected for -1.4% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #40 percentile among wide receivers.
  • In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.46 yards per target this season, ranking in the #57 percentile.
  • Williams has been in the #40 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 62.3% completion rate.
  • Cincinnati's defense has allowed 161 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#14-most in football).
  • Opposing wideouts have put up the #16-most yards per target (8.41) against the Bengals this season.
  • Cincinnati Bengals safeties rank as the #15 unit in pass coverage.
  • The Chargers project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #16-most of the week.
  • Williams's offensive line has been #16 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.

    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 56.8 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.7% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $0.61. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.

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