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Mike Glennon Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 15
New York Giants vs Dallas Cowboys
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Mike Glennon Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 193.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 197.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 193.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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New York has played in the #7-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The New York Giants have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Giants project to run 67.1 plays in this contest, the #2-most of the week.New York is a 12.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offense passes the ball 63.7% of the time in a neutral context (#9 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 64.7% of the time in this contest (#6 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Giants offensive line has given Mike Glennon 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Giants have run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in the NFL.Cowboys defensive tackles have ranked #24 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Mike Glennon's offensive line has been #30 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Cowboys have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.0% of their targets, ranking #1 in the NFL.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #9-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Cowboys linebackers have ranked #4 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York have faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.9%).The Dallas Cowboys enter this game with the #21-best pass defense this season, allowing 260 yards per game through the air.Dallas's defense has been #14-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.66 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #17-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Dallas Cowboys have had the #16-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Cowboys defensive ends have ranked #19 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Dallas Cowboys have stacked the box on 15.1% of their plays this season, #15-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 192.5 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 49.6% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the UNDER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the UNDER is -$6.68 and with a negative ROI of -6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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