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Mike Glennon

Mike Glennon Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13

Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants
 
 
 
Mike Glennon Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 214.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 211.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 214.5 @ -115.
PROS:
  • New York has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.
  • New York is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.
  • This offense passes the ball 64.4% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 63.4% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Giants offensive line has given Mike Glennon 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Giants have run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in the NFL.
  • The Miami Dolphins enter this game with the #31-best pass defense this season, allowing 281 yards per game through the air.
  • Dolphins defensive tackles have ranked #31 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box on 18.2% of their plays this season, #9-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • CONS:
  • The Giants project to run 61.5 plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.
  • Mike Glennon's offensive line has been #29 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Miami Dolphins have had the #6-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Dolphins defensive ends have ranked #10 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • NEUTRAL:
  • The New York Giants have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York have faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#14.9%).
  • The Dolphins have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.3% of their targets, ranking #11 in the NFL.
  • Miami's defense has been #22-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.06 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.
  • The Miami Dolphins have had the #20-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • The Miami Dolphins have had the #18-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.
  • Dolphins linebackers have ranked #15 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • PROJECTION:
    THE BLITZ sees him putting up 225.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.1% of the time.

    The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.29. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
     
     
     
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