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Mike Glennon Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Miami Dolphins vs New York Giants
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Mike Glennon Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 214.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 211.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 214.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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New York has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.New York is a 7.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offense passes the ball 64.4% of the time in a neutral context (#8 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 63.4% of the time in this contest (#8 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Giants offensive line has given Mike Glennon 2.38 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The New York Giants have run play-action on 31.1% of their passes this year, #7-most in the NFL.The Miami Dolphins enter this game with the #31-best pass defense this season, allowing 281 yards per game through the air.Dolphins defensive tackles have ranked #31 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box on 18.2% of their plays this season, #9-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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The Giants project to run 61.5 plays in this contest, the #24-most of the week.Mike Glennon's offensive line has been #29 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Miami Dolphins have had the #6-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Dolphins defensive ends have ranked #10 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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The New York Giants have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and New York have faced the #14-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#14.9%).The Dolphins have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.3% of their targets, ranking #11 in the NFL.Miami's defense has been #22-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.06 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Miami Dolphins have had the #20-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Miami Dolphins have had the #18-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Dolphins linebackers have ranked #15 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 225.2 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 54.1% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $1.29. It's return on investment would yeild 1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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