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Mike Evans Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers
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Right now, Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 68.5 (-125/-105), with an implied projection of 70.5 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 67.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 68.5 @ -125.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Evans ranks in the #90 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 84.1% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Evans ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 90.7% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Evans ranks in the #73 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 17.5% of passes this season.This week, THE BLITZ projects Evans for a 3.7% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Evans ranks in the #88 percentile and has put up 9.85 yards per target this season.The Carolina Panthers rank #31-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 70.6%.In a neutral context, Tampa Bay has run the #6-fastest paced offense this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to run 64.8 plays in this matchup, the #5-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 70.6% of the time (#1 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Tampa Bay to drop back to pass on 66.2% of their plays in this game (#3-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Tampa Bay's O-Line grades out as the #8-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Evans open.Tampa Bay's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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CONS:
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The Panthers's pass defense ranks #5-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 136 yards per game this season.The Buccaneers are a 10.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.Tampa Bay has run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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Evans's 66.5% completion rate marks him in the #56 percentile among receivers.The Carolina Panthers have allowed 8.58 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #22-highest among NFL opponents.As a unit, the Panthers cornerbacks rank #22 in pass coverage.As a unit, the Panthers safeties rank #14 in pass coverage.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Buccaneers have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.7%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Evans to exceed his player prop total 57.5% of the time. He projects for 79.6 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $4.33. That makes its return on investment yield +3%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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