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Mike Evans Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 17
New York Jets vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Right now, Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is Over/Under 45.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 54.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 45.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of playing time, Evans ranks in the #91 percentile among wide receivers. He has been on the field for 84.8% of his team's snaps this season.In terms of route running, Evans ranks in the #89 percentile among wide receivers. He has run a route on 91.4% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks this season.In terms of earning targets, Evans ranks in the #74 percentile among wide receivers. The QB has looked his way on 17.8% of passes this season.Evans ranks in the #92 percentile and has put up 10.03 yards per target this season.The New York Jets have allowed 9.32 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this year: #31-highest among NFL opponents.The New York Jets rank #25-highest in the league in Completion% to opposing wide receivers this year at 68.3%.As a unit, the Jets safeties rank #26 in pass coverage.In a neutral context, Tampa Bay has run the #7-fastest paced offense this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are projected to run 64.5 plays in this matchup, the #5-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 71.0% of the time (#1 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Tampa Bay to drop back to pass on 63.3% of their plays in this game (#8-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Tampa Bay's O-Line grades out as the #10-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season, which impacts how much time their QB has to find Evans open.Tampa Bay's offensive has kept pressure off the quarterback for 2.40 seconds on average this year (#7-most in the NFL), influencing his ability to scan for open receivers.
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CONS:
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The Buccaneers are a 14.5 point favorite. This indicates an extreme rushing game script.Tampa Bay has run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.
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NEUTRAL:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Evans for a -2.8% higher target share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Evans's 66.9% completion rate marks him in the #61 percentile among receivers.The Jets's pass defense ranks #17-best in the NFL against wide receivers, allowing 155 yards per game this season.As a unit, the Jets cornerbacks rank #20 in pass coverage.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Buccaneers have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.7%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Evans to exceed his player prop total 57.0% of the time. He projects for 53.8 Receiving Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $7.64. That makes its return on investment yield +7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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