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Mike Evans Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Mike Evans Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Evans has been on the field for 83.3% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #88 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 90.8% of Tampa Bay's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #88 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 18.0% -- #74 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 9.51 yards per target this season, ranking in the #74 percentile.Tampa Bay has played in the #5-most bad-weather games (rain, snow, or 15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Falcons have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 70.6% of their targets this season, (#3-most in the league).Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the #24 unit in pass coverage.The Buccaneers project to run 64.0 plays in this contest, the #5-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 71.7% of the time in a neutral context (#1 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 67.9% of the time in this contest (#2 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Evans's offensive line has been #10 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Buccaneers offensive line has given the QB 2.40 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#7-most time in the league).
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CONS:
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Atlanta Falcons cornerbacks rank as the #8 unit in pass coverage.Tampa Bay is a 11.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run play-action on 20.4% of their passes this year, #29-most in the NFL.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Evans is projected for 2.5% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #86 percentile among wide receivers.Evans has been in the #45 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 63.7% completion rate.Atlanta's defense has allowed 160 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#16-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #17-most yards per target (8.39) against the Falcons this season.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #15-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Tampa Bay has faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.7%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 80.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 65.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $24.77. It's return on investment would yeild 22%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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