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Michael Pittman Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Arizona Cardinals vs Indianapolis Colts
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Michael Pittman Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 56.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 63.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Pittman has been on the field for 90.7% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #97 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 96.2% of Indianapolis's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #98 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 23.9% -- #91 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.In terms of efficiency, he has put up 8.81 yards per target this season, ranking in the #68 percentile.Pittman has been in the #71 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 68.7% completion rate.Indianapolis has played in the #5-most high-wind games (15 mph+) this year, which saps receiver efficiency and should lead to improved performance in better conditions.The Cardinals have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 67.4% of their targets this season, (#10-most in the league).Indianapolis is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Indianapolis Colts have run play-action on 31.7% of their passes this year, #6-most in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Arizona's defense has allowed 144 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#25-most in football).The Indianapolis Colts have had the #31-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Pittman is projected for 1.1% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #70 percentile among wide receivers.Opposing wideouts have put up the #21-most yards per target (7.93) against the Cardinals this season.Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks rank as the #18 unit in pass coverage.Arizona Cardinals safeties rank as the #11 unit in pass coverage.The Colts project to run 62.6 plays in this contest, the #21-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 59.4% of the time in a neutral context (#21 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 59.6% of the time in this contest (#19 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Pittman's offensive line has been #21 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Colts offensive line has given the QB 2.47 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#20-most time in the league).Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Indianapolis has faced the #18-most stacked boxes in the league this year (13.6%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 66.6 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.3% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.62 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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