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Michael Gallup Receiving Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Washington Football Team vs Dallas Cowboys
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Michael Gallup Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Gallup has been on the field for 70.8% of his team's snaps this season, which ranks in the #75 percentile among wide receivers.He has run a route on 80.7% of Dallas's dropbacks this season, which puts him in the #76 percentile among wide receivers.His target share this season has been 18.2% -- #74 percentile when it comes to wide receivers.Washington's defense has allowed 182 yards per game to wide receivers this year (#5-most in football).Opposing wideouts have put up the #9-most yards per target (8.93) against the WFT this season.The WFT have allowed opposing wideouts to complete 69.5% of their targets this season, (#5-most in the league).The Dallas Cowboys have had the #2-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Cowboys project to run 66.2 plays in this contest, the #3-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 62.8% of the time in a neutral context (#11 in the NFL).Gallup's offensive line has been #2 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
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CONS:
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In terms of efficiency, he has put up 7.01 yards per target this season, ranking in the #20 percentile.Gallup has been in the #22 percentile when it comes to catching balls thrown his way this year with a 57.7% completion rate.Dallas is a 6.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
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NEUTRAL:
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Perhaps as a result of a change in role, personnel injury, or matchup, Gallup is projected for -0.7% more of his team's target share this week than he has gotten overall this year, which ranks in the #50 percentile among wide receivers.Washington Football Team cornerbacks rank as the #15 unit in pass coverage.Washington Football Team safeties rank as the #20 unit in pass coverage.This offenses projects to pass 58.3% of the time in this contest (#18 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Cowboys offensive line has given the QB 2.45 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#17-most time in the league).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Dallas Cowboys have run play-action on 25.5% of their passes this year, #16-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Dallas has faced the #16-most stacked boxes in the league this year (14.0%).
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 50.4 Receiving Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 52.5% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$2.19 and with a negative ROI of -2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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