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Michael Carter Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets
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Right now, Michael Carter Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 35.5 (-140/100), with an implied projection of 38.0 yards.
The money is on the Over: it opened 33.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 35.5 @ -140.
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PROS:
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The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and New York's ranks #11 in that regard this season.His 47.7% snap rate this year puts him in the #74 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 46.9% this year puts him in the #77 percentile among running backs.In a neutral context, New York has run the #7-fastest paced offense this season.The safeties of Buffalo have been the #32-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.New York has faced the #25-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (10.6% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Bills have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #24-most in the NFL this year at 10.6% of the time.
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CONS:
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The Jets are a 16.0 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.The Buffalo Bills have allowed 4.19 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #7-best in the metric this season.The linebackers of Buffalo have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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NEUTRAL:
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Carter finds himself in the #59 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 48 yards.This week, THE BLITZ projects Carter for a 3.5% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.This year, the Jets have played in 3 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #19-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.The New York Jets are projected to run 63.3 plays in this matchup, the #14-most on the game slate.New York has been the #17-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 39.0% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #18-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 38.8% of their plays.The Bills defense has allowed 108 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #14-least in football.The defensive ends of Buffalo have been the #17-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The defensive tackles of Buffalo have been the #11-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Carter to exceed his player prop total 72.2% of the time. He projects for 61.6 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $33.18. That makes its return on investment yield +24%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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