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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 22 - Super Bowl LVI
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 281.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Under: it opened 283.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 281.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #6-best in the league, Stafford has passed for271 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Stafford has been #6 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.66 yards per target.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 62.1 plays in this matchup, the #2-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.2% of the time (#6 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 64.1% of their plays in this game (#1-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #3-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Cincinnati's #27-ranked pass defense has allowed 254 passing yards per game this year.Cincinnati has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.4% of their targets, which ranks them #25-best in the NFL.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cincinnati's linebackers rank #32 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Rams have played in 11 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #3-most in football and means Stafford's numbers may be artificially inflated.The Rams enter as a 4.5 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #2-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #20-best in the league, completing passes at a 65.3% clip.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.In terms of passing efficiency, Cincinnati's defense is #22-best. This is because they allowed 7.78 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #19-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Cincinnati Bengals have had the #20-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cincinnati's defensive ends rank #16 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Cincinnati's defensive tackles rank #13 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Stafford to exceed his player prop total 57.3% of the time. He projects for 302.6 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $10.31. That makes its return on investment yield +9%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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