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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 20 - NFC Divisional Round Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Los Angeles Rams
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Right now, Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 282.5 (-110/-110).
The money is on the Over: it opened 279.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 282.5 @ -110.
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PROS:
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This year, at #6-best in the league, Stafford has passed for271 yards per game.In terms of efficiency, Stafford has been #6 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.66 yards per target.The Los Angeles Rams are projected to run 67.0 plays in this matchup, the #1-most on the game slate.The Rams enter as a 3.0 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 65.2% of the time (#6 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects Los Angeles to drop back to pass on 65.7% of their plays in this game (#3-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.Los Angeles's O-Line grades out as the #3-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tampa Bay's defensive ends rank #25 this season.
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CONS:
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This year, the Rams have played in 10 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #5-most in football and means Stafford's numbers may be artificially inflated.In terms of passing efficiency, Tampa Bay's defense is #3-best. This is because they allowed 6.96 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #10-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #4-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tampa Bay's defensive tackles rank #6 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #20-best in the league, completing passes at a 65.3% clip.In a neutral context, Los Angeles has run the #14-fastest paced offense this season.Tampa Bay's #22-ranked pass defense has allowed 238 passing yards per game this year.Tampa Bay has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.2% of their targets, which ranks them #17-best in the NFL.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #11-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Tampa Bay's linebackers rank #18 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Stafford to exceed his player prop total 48.1% of the time. He projects for 277.2 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the UNDER to offer better odds. The expected value on the UNDER is -$1.07 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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