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Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16

Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 286.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 287.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 286.5 @ -115.
  • Stafford has passed for 278 yards per game this year, #7-best in the league.
  • Efficiency-wise, Stafford has been #4 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.84 yards per target.
  • The Rams project to run 64.0 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.
  • This offense passes the ball 65.8% of the time in a neutral context (#6 in the NFL).
  • This offenses projects to pass 65.8% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Matthew Stafford's offensive line has been #3 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.
  • The Rams offensive line has given Matthew Stafford 2.57 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-best in football).
  • The Minnesota Vikings enter this game with the #30-best pass defense this season, allowing 274 yards per game through the air.
  • The Minnesota Vikings defense ranks #28-best in football in Yards per Target at 8.36.
  • Minnesota's cornerbacks grade out as the #32-best in pass coverage this year.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have stacked the box on 16.7% of their plays this season, #10-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.

  • CONS:
  • Los Angeles has played in 7 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.
  • Los Angeles is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.
  • Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Rams have run play-action on 23.0% of their passes this year, #26-most in the NFL.
  • The Vikings have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.3% of their targets, ranking #9-best in the NFL.
  • Minnesota's safeties grade out as the #6-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Minnesota's linebackers grade out as the #1-best in pass coverage this year.
  • Vikings defensive tackles have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • He's been the #20-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.7% clip.
  • The Los Angeles Rams have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.
  • Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).
  • Vikings defensive ends have ranked #16 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
  • Vikings linebackers have ranked #19 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.

    THE BLITZ sees Stafford putting up 312.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.9% of the time.

    THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.68. Its return on investment would yield +10%.

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