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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Rams
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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 286.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 287.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 286.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Stafford has passed for 278 yards per game this year, #7-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Stafford has been #4 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.84 yards per target.The Rams project to run 64.0 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 65.8% of the time in a neutral context (#6 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 65.8% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Matthew Stafford's offensive line has been #3 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Rams offensive line has given Matthew Stafford 2.57 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers (#5-best in football).The Minnesota Vikings enter this game with the #30-best pass defense this season, allowing 274 yards per game through the air.The Minnesota Vikings defense ranks #28-best in football in Yards per Target at 8.36.Minnesota's cornerbacks grade out as the #32-best in pass coverage this year.The Minnesota Vikings have stacked the box on 16.7% of their plays this season, #10-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Los Angeles has played in 7 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Los Angeles is a 3.0 point favorite, indicating a rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Rams have run play-action on 23.0% of their passes this year, #26-most in the NFL.The Vikings have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 68.3% of their targets, ranking #9-best in the NFL.Minnesota's safeties grade out as the #6-best in pass coverage this year.Minnesota's linebackers grade out as the #1-best in pass coverage this year.Vikings defensive tackles have ranked #7 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #20-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.7% clip.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).Vikings defensive ends have ranked #16 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Vikings linebackers have ranked #19 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees Stafford putting up 312.6 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 58.9% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $11.68. Its return on investment would yield +10%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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