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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 14
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 284.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 283.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 284.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Stafford has passed for 286 yards per game this year, #5-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Stafford has been #5 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.83 yards per target.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #7-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Rams project to run 64.4 plays in this contest, the #8-most of the week.Los Angeles is a 3.0 point underdog, indicating a passing game script.This offense passes the ball 66.2% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 66.0% of the time in this contest (#3 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Matthew Stafford's offensive line has been #3 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Rams offensive line has given Matthew Stafford 2.57 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.
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CONS:
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Los Angeles has played in 6 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#5-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Rams have run play-action on 23.0% of their passes this year, #26-most in the NFL.The Arizona Cardinals enter this game with the #5-best pass defense this season, allowing 222 yards per game through the air.Arizona's defense has been #3-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 6.99 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #9-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #8-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.Cardinals linebackers have ranked #3 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #21-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.5% clip.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#12.5%).The Cardinals have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 70.6% of their targets, ranking #16 in the NFL.The Arizona Cardinals have had the #13-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Cardinals defensive ends have ranked #12 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Cardinals defensive tackles have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Arizona Cardinals have stacked the box on 12.1% of their plays this season, #22-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 302.3 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 56.2% of the time.
THE BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $5.74. It's return on investment would yeild 5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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