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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Los Angeles Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars
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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 293.5 (-115/-115).
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PROS:
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Stafford has passed for 287 yards per game this year, #7-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Stafford has been #5 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.90 yards per target.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #6-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Rams project to run 63.8 plays in this contest, the #7-most of the week.This offense passes the ball 65.9% of the time in a neutral context (#5 in the NFL).Matthew Stafford's offensive line has been #2 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.The Rams offensive line has given Matthew Stafford 2.57 seconds before getting pressured to find open receivers.The Jaguars have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 75.0% of their targets, ranking #30 in the NFL.Jacksonville's defense has been #30-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.49 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.Jaguars defensive ends have ranked #25 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box on 18.8% of their plays this season, #6-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Los Angeles has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Los Angeles is a 14.0 point favorite, indicating an extreme rushing game script.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Rams have run play-action on 23.0% of their passes this year, #26-most in the NFL.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #9-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #22-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 65.6% clip.This offenses projects to pass 60.3% of the time in this contest (#14 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#12.5%).The Jacksonville Jaguars enter this game with the #15-best pass defense this season, allowing 254 yards per game through the air.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #22-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #17-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Jaguars defensive tackles have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Jaguars linebackers have ranked #19 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 315.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 57.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $8.26. It's return on investment would yeild 7%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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