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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Green Bay Packers vs Los Angeles Rams
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Matthew Stafford Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 273.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 277.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 273.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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Stafford has passed for 289 yards per game this year, #6-best in the league.Efficiency-wise, Stafford has been #4 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.98 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 66.1% of the time in a neutral context (#6 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 63.3% of the time in this contest (#4 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.Matthew Stafford's offensive line has been #2 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Green Bay's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 3 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #28-quickest in the NFL.
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CONS:
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Los Angeles has played in the #6-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year, which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Los Angeles Rams have run play-action on 21.9% of their passes this year, #27-most in the NFL.The Green Bay Packers enter this game with the #8-best pass defense this season, allowing 232 yards per game through the air.The Packers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.4% of their targets, ranking #6 in the NFL.Green Bay's defense has been #4-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.00 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Green Bay Packers have had the #8-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Green Bay Packers have had the #4-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Packers defensive tackles have ranked #6 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Packers linebackers have ranked #8 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Green Bay Packers have stacked the box on 6.3% of their plays this season, #31-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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He's been the #17-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.2% clip.The Los Angeles Rams have had the #14-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Rams project to run 62.1 plays in this contest, the #20-most of the week.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Los Angeles have faced the #21-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#12.8%).The Green Bay Packers have had the #19-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.Packers defensive ends have ranked #15 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 255.1 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 43.4% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the UNDER with an expected value of $6.69. It's return on investment would yeild 6%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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