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Matt Ryan Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 17
Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons
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Right now, Matt Ryan Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 206.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 209.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 206.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This year, at #14-best in the league, Ryan has passed for240 yards per game.In terms of Completion%, he has been the #10-best in the league, completing passes at a 67.5% clip.The Falcons are a 14.5 point underdog. This indicates an extreme passing game script.THE BLITZ projects Atlanta to drop back to pass on 63.6% of their plays in this game (#6-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.The Buffalo Bills have had the #26-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.
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CONS:
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This year, the Falcons have played in 6 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #10-most in football and means Ryan's numbers may be artificially inflated.Atlanta's O-Line grades out as the #31-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.Buffalo's #1-ranked pass defense has allowed 191 passing yards per game this year.Buffalo has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63.5% of their targets, which ranks them #2-best in the NFL.In terms of passing efficiency, Buffalo's defense is #1-best. This is because they allowed 6.35 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Buffalo Bills have had the #7-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Buffalo Bills have had the #1-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Bills, they've stacked the box on 10.6% of their plays this season, #24-most in football.
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NEUTRAL:
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In terms of efficiency, Ryan has been #21 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.13 yards per target.In a neutral context, Atlanta has run the #17-fastest paced offense this season.The Atlanta Falcons are projected to run 63.5 plays in this matchup, the #13-most on the game slate.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 61.4% of the time (#15 in the NFL).Atlanta has run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Falcons have faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (12.5%).When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Buffalo's defensive ends rank #13 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Buffalo's defensive tackles rank #17 this season.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Buffalo's linebackers rank #14 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Ryan to exceed his player prop total 52.7% of the time. He projects for 213.6 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.59 with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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