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Matt Ryan Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 13
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Matt Ryan Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 254.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 253.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 254.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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This game will be played in a dome, meaning zero wind and a higher chance to complete passes.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Falcons project to run 65.8 plays in this contest, the #1-most of the week.Atlanta is a 11.0 point underdog, indicating an extreme passing game script.This offenses projects to pass 69.8% of the time in this contest (#1 in the NFL) based on underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.The Buccaneers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72.2% of their targets, ranking #23 in the NFL.Buccaneers defensive ends have ranked #28 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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CONS:
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Atlanta has played in 5 low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year (#6-most in football), which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Matt Ryan's offensive line has been #26 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Tampa Bay's defense has been #5-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 7.09 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #7-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #4-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had the #9-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Buccaneers defensive tackles have ranked #8 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have stacked the box on 11.9% of their plays this season, #23-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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NEUTRAL:
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Ryan has passed for 242 yards per game this year, #16-best in the league.He's been the #14-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.8% clip.Efficiency-wise, Ryan has been #25 in the NFL this season, averaging 7.02 yards per target.This offense passes the ball 61.9% of the time in a neutral context (#14 in the NFL).Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Atlanta Falcons have run play-action on 27.7% of their passes this year, #12-most in the NFL.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Atlanta have faced the #22-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#12.5%).The Tampa Bay Buccaneers enter this game with the #20-best pass defense this season, allowing 262 yards per game through the air.Buccaneers linebackers have ranked #14 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 305.0 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 67.3% of the time.
The BLITZ believes there is positive value on the OVER with an expected value of $29.63. It's return on investment would yeild 26%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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