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Matt Ryan Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 12
Jacksonville Jaguars vs Atlanta Falcons
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Matt Ryan Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 253.5 (-115/-115).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 252.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 253.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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He's been the #12-best in terms of Completion%, completing passes at a 66.9% clip.The Atlanta Falcons have had the #10-fastest paced offense in a neutral context this season.The Falcons project to run 63.8 plays in this contest, the #7-most of the week.Play action passes confuse the defense and lead to a higher completion rate. The Atlanta Falcons have run play-action on 27.3% of their passes this year, #11-most in the NFL.The Jaguars have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 75.7% of their targets, ranking #32 in the NFL.Jacksonville's defense has been #28-best in terms of passing efficiency, allowing 8.55 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #29-best group of cornerbacks this season in terms of their pass coverage.The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #25-best group of linebackers this season in terms of their pass coverage.Jaguars defensive tackles have ranked #27 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box on 20.7% of their plays this season, #4-most in the NFL. A stacked box makes quarterbacks more efficient, while a light box makes it more difficult for them to complete passes.
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CONS:
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Efficiency-wise, Ryan has been #24 in the NFL this season, averaging 6.98 yards per target.Atlanta has played in the #6-most low-wind games (2 mph or less) this year, which artificially improves a quarterback's efficiency and should lead to worse performance in normal conditions.Matt Ryan's offensive line has been #30 best in pass protection this year, which has a real impact on their ability to complete clean passes to their wide receivers.Teams that stack the box with extra defenders to stop the run leave themselves exposed to the pass, and Atlanta have faced the #23-most stacked boxes in the league this year (#12.7%).The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the #9-best group of safeties this season in terms of their pass coverage.
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NEUTRAL:
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Ryan has passed for 244 yards per game this year, #16-best in the league.This offense passes the ball 62.0% of the time in a neutral context (#15 in the NFL).This offenses projects to pass 60.7% of the time in this contest (#13 in the NFL) based on matchup dynamics.The Jacksonville Jaguars enter this game with the #18-best pass defense this season, allowing 258 yards per game through the air.Jaguars defensive ends have ranked #20 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Jaguars linebackers have ranked #18 this season when it comes to rushing the passer.Jacksonville's defensive front has pressured opposing quarterbacks 2 seconds after the snap, on average, ranking #12-quickest in the NFL.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ sees him putting up 261.8 Passing Yards for this matchup on average, while projecting him to exceed his player prop total 53.0% of the time.
The BLITZ believes the OVER offers better odds, but both sides have negative expected value. The expected value on the OVER is -$1.01 and with a negative ROI of -1%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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