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Mark Ingram Rushing Yards Player Prop - Week 16
New Orleans Saints vs Miami Dolphins
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Right now, Mark Ingram Rushing Yards Prop is Over/Under 28.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Under: it opened 29.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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His 42.9% snap rate this year puts him in the #67 percentile among running backs.His carry rate of 47.8% this year puts him in the #75 percentile among running backs.This year, the Saints have played in 7 games with wind of 2 mph or less. That ranks #6-most in football and could mean they'll run a bit more going forward, since teams generally lean into the pass game in low wind.New Orleans has been the #3-most run-heavy offense in the NFL this year with a 42.7% run rate in a neutral context.THE BLITZ projects this offense as the #2-most run-heavy of the week (based on team tendencies and matchup factors), expecting them to run on 49.8% of their plays.The linebackers of Miami have been the #23-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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CONS:
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This week, THE BLITZ projects Ingram for a -22.4% higher carry share than he has garnered this season (perhaps due to team injuries, a change in role, or matchup dynamics), one of the most notable differences of the week.Teams run the ball less when they're in a dome and there's no wind, which will be the case for New Orleans this week.The New Orleans Saints are projected to run 61.1 plays in this matchup, the #27-most on the game slate.The Saints enter as a 3.5 point underdog. This indicates a passing game script.The Dolphins defense has allowed 104 rushing yards per game to opponents this year, #8-least in football.The defensive ends of Miami have been the #5-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.New Orleans has faced the #6-most stacked boxes in the NFL this year (18.3% of the time). Stacking the box is a particularly effective tactic defenses use to stop the run.The Dolphins have stacked the box against opposing rushers the #9-most in the NFL this year at 18.2% of the time.
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NEUTRAL:
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Ingram finds himself in the #48 percentile in rushing yards per game in 2021, averaging 41 yards.The offensive line is crucial to open up holes, and New Orleans's ranks #16 in that regard this season.In a neutral context, New Orleans has run the #21-fastest paced offense this season.The Miami Dolphins have allowed 4.56 yards per attempt on the ground this year, putting them #20-best in the metric this season.The defensive tackles of Miami have been the #15-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.The safeties of Miami have been the #13-most effective unit among all teams in 2021.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Ingram to exceed his player prop total 54.3% of the time. He projects for 32.1 Rushing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
According to THE BLITZ, there is positive value on the OVER, with an expected value of $1.77. That makes its return on investment yield +2%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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