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Mac Jones Passing Yards Player Prop - Week 18
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
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Right now, Mac Jones Passing Yards Prop is Over/Under 214.5 (-115/-115).
The money is on the Over: it opened 212.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 214.5 @ -115.
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PROS:
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In terms of Completion%, he has been the #4-best in the league, completing passes at a 68.5% clip.In terms of efficiency, Jones has been #11 in the NFL this season. He averages 7.47 yards per target.This year, the Patriots have played in the #4-most bad-weather games -- i.e. rain, snow, or 15 mph+ wind. Jones's efficiency almost certainly took a hit in these games, and this should mean better things in better conditions.Defenses leave more areas of the field open to the pass when they stack the box to stop the run. The Patriots have faced the #1-most stacked boxes in the league this year (26.0%).In terms of passing efficiency, Miami's defense is #23-best. This is because they allowed 7.92 yards per target to opposing signal-callers.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Miami's defensive tackles rank #31 this season.Defense that stack the box make it easier for quarterbacks to complete passes. In the case of the Dolphins, they've stacked the box on 18.2% of their plays this season, #9-most in football.
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CONS:
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In a neutral context, New England has run the #26-fastest paced offense this season.The Patriots enter as a 6.0 point favorite. This indicates a rushing game script.In a neutral context, this offense passes the ball 58.9% of the time (#24 in the NFL).THE BLITZ projects New England to drop back to pass on 55.0% of their plays in this game (#25-highest rate of the week) based on their tendencies and matchup-specific factors.The Miami Dolphins have had the #5-best group of safeties this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Miami's linebackers rank #9 this season.
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NEUTRAL:
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This year, at #17-best in the league, Jones has passed for229 yards per game.The New England Patriots are projected to run 62.4 plays in this matchup, the #17-most on the game slate.New England's O-Line grades out as the #14-best in the NFL in protecting the passer this season.New England's offensive has kept pressure off Mac Jones for 2.43 seconds on average this year (#13-most in the NFL).New England has run play-action on 26.3% of their passes this year, #14-most in football. Play action passes lead to a higher completion rate as the defense bites on the run.Miami's #21-ranked pass defense has allowed 253 passing yards per game this year.Miami has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69.1% of their targets, which ranks them #13-best in the NFL.The Miami Dolphins have had the #18-best group of cornerbacks this season when it comes to pass coverage.The Miami Dolphins have had the #19-best group of linebackers this season when it comes to pass coverage.When it comes to putting pressure on the quarterback, Miami's defensive ends rank #11 this season.
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PROJECTION:
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THE BLITZ projects Jones to exceed his player prop total 50.9% of the time. He projects for 216.8 Passing Yards (on average) in this matchup.
While both sides have negative EV, THE BLITZ projects the OVER to offer better odds. The expected value on the OVER is -$5.59 with a negative ROI of -5%.
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© 2021 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™
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